The numbers, in plain words.
Ten terms, and the three constants estimated from this season’s games.
The three constants
- Home field advantage
- 2.6
- points to the home side
- Sigma
- 13.4
- points per rating gap
- Average top-25 team
- 12.4
- SP+ points
Estimated by least squares on the games already played.
Terms
- Strength of record
- How unlikely this win total is against that schedule. It picks the pool.
- Offense
- Points added over an average defense, ranked.
- Defense
- Points removed from an average offense, ranked.
- Game control
- How much of each game was held, not the margin.
- The star buckets
- Opponent strength in half stars, five down to a half for FCS.
- Home field advantage
- Points the model gives the home side.
- Sigma
- The spread of a margin around a rating gap.
- Average top-25 team
- The stand-in the resume is measured against.
- The simulated BCS
- Six computer systems plus the AP and Coaches polls, combined the BCS way. It nominates each round’s pool, and it is one of the comparators on your board.
- The consensus block
- Low, high, median and mean across the six systems.